Publication profile
Publication profile
Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir
Name:
Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir
Title:
Sjefsforsker II / Chief Research Scientist II
Phone:
(+47) +47 22 85 25 60
Email:
thordis [at] nr [dot] no
Scientific areas:
Bayesian methods, Probabilistic forecasting and verification, Point processes, Spatial statistics, Weather and climate
Add to contacts (vCard) Show publications
Academic article
2022
. Probabilistic prediction of the time to hard freeze using seasonal weather forecasts and survival time methods. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (ISSN 0035-9009). doi: 10.1002/qj.4403. 2022.
. Quantile based modeling of diurnal temperature range with the five-parameter lambda distribution. Environmetrics (ISSN 1180-4009). doi: 10.1002/env.2719. 2022. Arkiv
2021
. Consistent intensity-duration-frequency curves by post-processing of estimated Bayesian posterior quantiles. Journal of Hydrology (ISSN 0022-1694). 603(Part C) pp 1-15. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127000. 2021.
. Bridging the scale gap: obtaining high-resolution stochastic simulations of gridded daily precipitation in a future climate. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) (ISSN 1027-5606). 25(9) pp 5259-5275. doi: 10.5194/hess-25-5259-2021. 2021. Arkiv
2020
. Predictive Inference Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Output. International Statistical Review (ISSN 0306-7734). doi: 10.1111/insr.12405. 2020.
. Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations of historical surface air temperature extremes using proper evaluation methods. Environmental Research Letters (ISSN 1748-9326). 15(12) pp 124041. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc778. 2020. Arkiv Fulltekst
. Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea by using Bayesian hierarchical modelling. The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics) (ISSN 0035-9254). 69(2) doi: 10.1111/rssc.12397. 2020.
. Multivariate Postprocessing Methods for High-Dimensional Seasonal Weather Forecasts. Journal of the American Statistical Association (ISSN 0162-1459). doi: 10.1080/01621459.2020.1769634. 2020.
. Spatial trend analysis of gridded temperature data at varying spatial scales. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography (ASCMO) (ISSN 2364-3579). 6(1) pp 1-12. doi: 10.5194/ascmo-6-1-2020. 2020. Arkiv
2019
. Rapid adjustment and post-processing of temperature forecast trajectories. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (ISSN 0035-9009). doi: 10.1002/qj.3718. 2019.
. New approach for bias correction and stochastic downscaling of future projections for daily mean temperatures to a high-resolution grid. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (ISSN 1558-8424). 58(12) pp 2617-2632. doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0086.1. 2019. Arkiv
2018
. Bayesian regional flood frequency analysis for large catchments. Water Resources Research (ISSN 0043-1397). 54(9) pp 6929-6947. doi: 10.1029/2017WR022460. 2018. Fulltekst
. Evaluation of design flood estimates - a case study for Norway. Hydrology Research (ISSN 1998-9563). 49(2) pp 450-465. doi: 10.2166/nh.2017.068. 2018. Fulltekst Arkiv
2017
. Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities. Weather and Climate Extremes (ISSN 2212-0947). 18 pp 65-74. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2017.10.003. 2017. Fulltekst
. Sea level adaptation decisions under uncertainty. Water Resources Research (ISSN 0043-1397). 53(10) pp 8147-8163. doi: 10.1002/2016WR020354. 2017. Fulltekst
. Forecaster's dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation. Statistical Science (ISSN 0883-4237). 32(1) pp 106-127. doi: 10.1214/16-STS588. 2017. Omtale Fulltekst
2016
. Assessing the Calibration of High-Dimensional Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms. Journal of Computational And Graphical Statistics (JCGS) (ISSN 1061-8600). 25(1) pp 105-122. doi: 10.1080/10618600.2014.977447. 2016. Fulltekst
. Challenges of climate change adaptation: Practical and methodological challenges of climate change adaptation. EOS (ISSN 0096-3941). 97 2016. Fulltekst
. Propagation of rating curve uncertainty in design flood estimation. Water Resources Research (ISSN 0043-1397). 52(9) pp 6897-6915. doi: 10.1002/2015WR018516. 2016.
2015
. Gaussian random particles with flexible Hausdorff dimension. Advances in Applied Probability (ISSN 0001-8678). 47(2) pp 307-327. doi: 10.1239/aap/1435236977. 2015. Fulltekst
. Bayesian hierarchical modeling of extreme hourly precipitation in Norway. Environmetrics (ISSN 1180-4009). 26(2) pp 89-106. doi: 10.1002/env.2301. 2015. Fulltekst
. Spatial postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for temperature using nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression. Monthly Weather Review (ISSN 0027-0644). 143(3) pp 955-971. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00210.1. 2015. Fulltekst
. Bayesian motion estimation for dust aerosols. Annals of Applied Statistics (ISSN 1932-6157). 9(3) pp 1298-1327. doi: 10.1214/15-AOAS835. 2015.
. Shape from texture using locally scaled point processes. Image Analysis and Stereology (ISSN 1580-3139). 34(3) pp 161-170. doi: 10.5566/ias.1078. 2015.
2014
. Studying statistical methodology in climate research: Stats + climate workshop; Oslo, Norway, 11-13 November 2013. EOS (ISSN 0096-3941). 95(15) pp 129. doi: 10.1002/2014EO150008. 2014. Sammendrag Fulltekst Omtale
. A framework for benchmarking of homogenisation algorithm performance on the global scale. Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems (ISSN 2193-0856). 3 pp 187-200. doi: 10.5194/gi-3-187-2014. 2014.
. Concepts for benchmarking of homogenisation algorithm performance on the global scale. Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems Discussions (ISSN 2193-0872). 4(1) pp 235-270. doi: 10.5194/gid-4-235-2014. 2014.
2013
. Multivariate probabilistic forecasting using Bayesian model averaging and copulas. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (ISSN 0035-9009). 139(673) pp 982-991. doi: 10.1002/qj.2009. 2013.
. Calibration diagnostics for point process models via the probability integral transform. Stat (ISSN 2049-1573). 2(1) pp 150-158. doi: 10.1002/sta4.25. 2013.
. Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling. Statistical Science (ISSN 0883-4237). 28(4) pp 616-640. doi: 10.1214/13-STS443. 2013.
. Comparison of non-homogeneous regression models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography (ISSN 0280-6495). 65 doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.21206. 2013.
. Using Proper Divergence Functions to Evaluate Climate Models. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification (JUQ) (ISSN 2166-2525). 1(1) pp 522-534. doi: 10.1137/130907550. 2013.
. A note on moving average models for Gaussian random fields. Statistics and Probability Letters (ISSN 0167-7152). 83(3) pp 850-855. doi: 10.1016/j.spl.2012.12.009. 2013.
2012
. Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts. Promet (Offenbach) (ISSN 0340-4552). 37(3/4) pp 43-52. 2012.
. Forecast verification for extreme value distributions with an application to probabilistic peak wind prediction. Environmetrics (ISSN 1180-4009). 23(7) pp 579-594. doi: 10.1002/env.2176. 2012.
Academic literature review
2022
. Forecasting: theory and practice. International Journal of Forecasting (ISSN 0169-2070). 38 pp 705-871. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001. 2022.
2017
. New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue. Nature Climate Change (ISSN 1758-678X). 7(10) pp 697-703. doi: 10.1038/nclimate3393. 2017.
2012
. What Happened to Discrete Chaos, the Quenouille Process, and the Sharp Markov Property? Some History of Stochastic Point Processes. International Statistical Review (ISSN 0306-7734). 80(2) pp 253-268. doi: 10.1111/j.1751-5823.2012.00181.x. 2012.
Book review
2019
. Local Climate Projections: A Little Money Goes a Long Way. 2019.
Academic chapter/article/Conference paper
2018
. Verification: Assessment of Calibration and Accuracy. In: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts. (ISBN 978-0-12-812372-0). pp 155-186. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-812372-0.00006-6. 2018.
2012
. Bayesian Inference for Non-Markovian Point Processes. In: Advances and Challenges in Space-time Modelling of Natural Events. (ISBN 978-3-642-17085-0). pp 79-102. doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-17086-7_4. 2012. Fulltekst
Academic lecture
2022
. Estimating consistent rainfall design values for Norway using Bayesian inference and post-processing of posterior quantiles. EMS Annual Meeting 2022, EMS2022-85; Bonn, 9/4/2022 - 9/9/2022.
. Consistent estimation of extreme precipitation and flooding across multiple durations. Workshop on Extremal Trends in Weather (WET Weather); Wales, 9/21/2022.
. Consistent estimation of extreme precipitation and flooding across multiple durations. BIRS Combining Causal Inference and Extreme Value Theory in the Study of Climate Extremes and their Causes; Kelowna, Canada og digitalt, 6/28/2022.
. Validation of point process predictions with proper scoring rules. Natural Resources Institute Finland Statistics Seminar, 3/7/2022.
. A Bayesian framework to derive consistent intensity-duration-frequency curves from multiple data sources. EGU General Assembly 2022; Wien og digitalt, 5/23/2022 - 5/27/2022.
. Probabilistic prediction of the time to hard freeze using seasonal weather forecasts and survival time methods. EGU General Assembly 2022; Wien og digitalt, 5/23/2022 - 5/27/2022.
. Flood-duration-frequency (QDF) Modeling: Updates and Current Status. ClimDesign’s annual international seminar, 10/24/2022.
. Regional flood-Duration-Frequency (QDF) Models for Norway. Nordic Hydrologic Council (NHC) Conference, 8/16/2022.
. New Flood-Duration-Frequency Models with a Focus on Estimation of Sub-daily Floods. 12th International Workshop on Statistical Hydrology, 9/17/2022.
2021
. A Bayesian approach to Flood-Duration-Analysis. American Geophyscial Union (AGU) Conference, 12/16/2021.
. Forecast evaluation part I. Western Swiss Doctoral School in Statistics and Probability; Virtual, 2/8/2021 - 2/10/2021.
. Forecast evaluation part III. Western Swiss Doctoral School in Statistics and Probability; Virtual, 2/8/2021 - 2/10/2021.
. Forecast evaluation part II. Western Swiss Doctoral School in Statistics and Probability; Virtual, 2/8/2021 - 2/10/2021.
. On the importance of statistics and machine learning in climate research. Norsk Statistisk Forening seminar; Oslo, 11/16/2021.
. Machine learning vs statistical methods for climate data analysis. Data driven climate insight; Virtual, 1/19/2021.
. Consistent Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves by post-processing of estimated Bayesian posterior quantiles. 6th Conference on Modelling Hydrology, Climate and Land Surface Processes; Lillehammer, 9/14/2021 2:00:00 AM - 9/16/2021.
2020
. From weather to climate predictions. 40th International Symposium on Forecasting; Virtual, 10/26/2020 - 10/28/2020.
2019
. Statistical space-time projections of wave heights in the North Atlantic. European Meeting of Statisticians; Palermo, 7/22/2019 - 7/26/2019.
. Rapid Adjustment of Forecast Trajectories: improving short-term forecast skill through statistical post-processing. European Geosciences Union General Assembly; Wien, 4/7/2019 - 4/12/2019. Omtale
. The effects of uncertainty on design flood estimation. EVA 2019, 7/1/2019 - 7/5/2019.
. Rapid adjustment of weather forecast trajectories. Big Insight Lunch Meeting; Norsk Regnesentral, 5/8/2019.
. Decision support for climate change adaptation: The importance of uncertainty assessment. RSS 2019, 9/4/2019.
. On developing general and efficient inference algorithms for complicated hierarchical models. World Statistics Congress, 8/21/2019.
. Statistics in climate research: The importance of stochastic modelling and uncertainty quantification. University of Goettingen, Statistics Seminar, 2/21/2019.
2018
. Improving forecasts through rapid updating of temperature trajectories and statistical post-processing. European Geosciences Union General Assembly; Wien, 4/8/2018 - 4/13/2018.
. Post-processing climate model output to obtain accurate high-resolution climate projections & why uncertainty matters even if the answer is just a number. Swiss Statistics Seminar, 11/9/2018.
. Statistics in climate research: The importance of stochastic modelling and uncertainty quantification. UiO Statistics Seminar, 11/20/2018.
. Using nerve fibre data as a statistical laboratory. 9th Smögen Workshop, 8/13/2018 - 8/16/2018.
. Spatial hierarchical modelling with a large number of potential covariates. EPFL statistics seminar, 11/8/2018.
. Bayesian hierarchical modeling of extreme flood events. 9th Smögen Workshop, 8/13/2018 - 8/16/2018.
. Varsling av vær og klima i maskinlæringens tid. Hvor gode kan sesongvarslene bli? Kraftverkshydrologi og miljøforhold, 11/20/2018 - 11/21/2018.
. Point processes: Models vs. inference. METMA IX; Montpellier, 6/13/2018 - 6/15/2018.
. Does Bayes beat squinting? Bayesian modelling of cluster point process models. RSS Highland Group - St Andrews meeting; St Andrews, 4/18/2018.
. Bayesian modelling of cluster point process models. ISBA 2018; Edinburgh, 6/27/2018.
. Statistical estimation of extreme floods. Extremes 2018; Hannover, 3/18/2018.
. On developing general and efficient inference algorithms for complicated hierarchical models. 13th German Probability and Statistics Days; Freiburg, 2/28/2018.
2017
. FlomQ: Improving flood estimation methods for dam safety in Norway. EnergiForsk HUVA dagen; Stockholm, 12/7/2017.
. Forecast evaluation II. ScienceFore Summer School: The Science of Forecasting; Heidelberg, 10/4/2017 - 10/6/2017.
. Forecast evaluation I. ScienceFore Summer School: The Science of Forecasting; Heidelberg, 10/4/2017 - 10/6/2017.
. Probabilistic Forecasting of Temporal Trajectories of Regional Power Production. Forecasting and Risk Management for Renewable Energy; University Paris Diderot, Paris, 7/7/2017 - 7/9/2017.
. Spatial trend analysis of gridded temperature data sets at varying spatial scales. Synthesis of Statistics, Data Mining and Environmental Sciences in Pursuit of Knowledge Discovery (17w5076); Oaxaca, 10/29/2017 - 11/3/2017.
. I don't know, are you sure you want to do this? Challenges in the Statistical Modeling of Stochastic Processes for the Natural Sciences; Banff, 7/10/2017 - 7/14/2017.
. Estimating the seal pup abundance in the Greenland Sea with Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Det 17. norske statistikermøtet; Fredrikstad, 6/12/2017 - 6/15/2017.
. Bayesian modelling of cluster point process models. Spatial Statistics 2017; Lancaster, 7/4/2017 - 7/7/2017.
. The role of uncertainty in evidence based climate change adaptation. ECCA 2017; Glasgow, 6/5/2017 - 6/9/2017.
2016
. Estimating seal pup abundance with LGCP. Autumn Meeting on Latent Gaussian Models, 10/10/2016 - 10/11/2016.
. Regional flood frequency analysis for Norway. Workshop on spatial and space-time statistics; Smögen, 8/15/2016 - 8/18/2016.
. Paths and pitfalls in model evaluation: The importance of being proper. The 26th Annual Conference of the International Environmetrics Society; Edinburgh, 7/18/2016 - 7/22/2016.
. FlomQ - Hvor sikkert kan dimensjoneringsgrunnlaget bestemmes? Produksjonsteknisk konferanse; Bergen, 3/8/2016.
. Regional flood frequency analysis for Norway. Karlsruhe Insitute of Technology Stochastics Seminar, 5/17/2016.
. Regional flood frequency analysis for Norway. University of Exeter Statistics Seminar, 5/12/2016.
2015
. Assessing the calibration of high-dimensional ensemble forecasts using rank histograms. RSS 2015; Exeter, 9/8/2015.
2014
. Predicting temporal trajectories of regional wind and solar power production. High-dimensional, high-frequency and spatial data; Karlsruhe, 10/31/2014.
. Joint probabilistic forecasting of temporal trajectories of regional wind and solar power production. New challenges in spatial and spatio-temporal modeling; Smögen, 8/25/2014.
. Joint probabilistic forecasting of temporal trajectories of regional wind and solar power production. Spatial Copula Workshop; Münster, 9/23/2014.
. Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models. Uncertainty in climate variability and projections of climate change: towards a process-based understanding; Chicheley Hall, 9/16/2014.
. Recovering the multivariate dependencies of statistically post-processed ensemble forecasts with ensemble copula coupling. World Weather Open Science Conference; Montreal, 8/20/2014.
. Evaluating probabilistic forecasts. Modelling and Prediction of Weather Extremes; Annweiler am Trifels, 6/10/2014 - 6/13/2014.
. Recovering the multivariate dependencies of statistically post-processed ensemble forecasts. The Climate Corporation, 2/18/2014.
2013
. Recovering the multivariate dependencies of statistically post-processed ensemble forecasts. University of Reading Meteorology Department Seminar; Reading, 2/11/2013.
. Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models. 12th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology; Jeju, 6/24/2013 - 6/28/2013.
. Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models. 11th European Congress of Stereology and Image Analysis; Kaiserslautern, 7/8/2013 - 7/12/2013.
. Geometric analysis of textured 3D scenes via locally scaled point processes. Joint Statistical Meeting; Montreal, 8/3/2013 - 8/8/2013.
. Efficient framework for Bayesian inference in locally scaled point processes. 11th European Congress of Stereology and Image Analysis; Kaiserslautern, 7/8/2013 - 7/12/2013.
. Improving the evaluation of climate extreme events in global climate models (CMIP5) using proper divergences. Stats + Climate; Oslo, 11/11/2013 - 11/13/2013.
. Detecting the differences: Bayesian model selection framework for point process models. 2nd French Workshop on Stochastic Geometry; Grenoble, 4/3/2013 - 4/5/2013.
. Assessing the calibration of high-dimensional forecasts via rank histograms. NTNU Statistics Miniworkshop, 3/13/2013.
. Bayesian model selection for point process cluster models. University of Reading Statistics Seminar, 2/12/2013.
. Paths and pitfalls in prediction verification. Norges Bank Lunch Seminar; Oslo, 1/14/2013.
2012
. Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts. UiO Geofag Seminar; Oslo, 10/15/2012.
. Proper scoring rules and divergences to evaluate weather and climate models. UiO Stat Seminar; Oslo, 10/30/2012.
. Bayesian model selection for point process cluster models. The Trondheim Symposium in Statistics; Selbu, 10/19/2012 - 10/20/2012.
. Proper scoring rules and divergences -- with an application to climate model ranking. COST VALUE -- Data and Validation Workshop; Trieste, 9/19/2012 - 9/20/2012.
Lecture
2022
. Potensialet i data. NFR og KLD frokostmøte: Data og datadeling, 9/29/2022.
. Extracting robust information from data. Consolidating downscaling for the provision of regional climate information; Oslo og digitalt, 10/12/2022.
. Climate Futures: Navigating climate risk. Workshop on Extremal Trends in Weather (WET Weather); Wales, 9/21/2022.
. On the importance of statistics and machine learning in climate research. dScience Lunch Seminar; Oslo, 3/3/2022.
. Probabilistic prediction of the time to hard freeze using seasonal weather forecasts and survival time methods. Bjerknes Climate Prediction seminar; Bergen/Digitalt, 2/25/2022.
. Prediction of the time to hard freeze using seasonal weather forecasts and survival time methods. Faglig seminar - Climate Futures; Zoom, 2/15/2022.
2021
. The Climate Futures Center for Research-based Innovation. Statkraft knowledge session; Oslo, 11/11/2021.
. New methods for making consistent IDF curves for Norway. Workshop on statistical modelling of extremes - Annual workshop in the RCN funded project ClimDesign; NVE, Middelthunsgate 29, Oslo, Norway, 10/11/2021 - 10/12/2021.
2017
. If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough. Challenges in the Statistical Modeling of Stochastic Processes for the Natural Sciences; Banff, 7/10/2017 - 7/14/2017.
2016
. Flomfrekvensanalyse for umålte felt. FlomQ workshop on flomestimering; Trondheim, 5/23/2016.
2014
. A robust flood estimation framework for Norway. FlomQ startup workshop; Oslo, 5/7/2014.
. FlomQ - A robust flood estimation framework for Norway. High North Seminar; Oslo, 10/28/2014.
. FlomQ - flomberegningsprosjekt. Regionsmøte i Vassdragsteknisk forum vest; Rosendal, 9/2/2014.
2013
. Visualizing in R - advanced plotting. Kurs. Det 17. norske statistikermøtet; Halden, 6/10/2013 - 6/11/2013.
Poster
2019
. HDwave: Statistical space-time projections of wave heights. 2nd International Workshop on Waves, Storm Surges and Coastal Hazards, 11/10/2019 - 11/15/2019.
2016
. Propagation of rating curve uncertainty in design flood estimation. EGU 2016, 4/18/2016 - 4/22/2016.
Report
2023
. Gjensidige Denmark: Water damage risk model and preliminary analysis of storm damages. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/03/23. pp 46. 2023.
2022
. A Benchmarking Dataset for Seasonal Weather Forecasts. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/01/22. pp 10. 2022.
2021
. Prediksjon av lavvann ved Åbjøra. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/13/21. pp 35. 2021.
. Stedsbasert risiko for vannskader - fase 2: Effekten av bygningsegenskaper, meteorologi og topografi. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat Samba/12/21. pp 54. 2021.
2020
. Validation of point process predictions with proper scoring rules. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/17/20. pp 26. 2020. Fulltekst
. Trajectory adjustment of lagged seasonal forecast ensembles. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/19/20. pp 13. 2020.
. Risikomodell for vannskader på bygninger og sensitivitet i klimaframskrivninger. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/25/20. pp 91. 2020. Arkiv
. Risikomodell for vannskader på bygninger. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/06/20. pp 75. 2020.
. Stedsbasert risiko for vannskader - fase 1: Vurdering av topografiske indekser. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/48/20. pp 34. 2020.
2019
. Stratospheric events and long-range Scandinavian winter surface temperature forecasts. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/21/19. pp 33. 2019.
. Validation of point process forecasts. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/20/19. pp 28. 2019. Fulltekst
2018
. Evaluation of bias corrected precipitation output from the EURO-CORDEX climate ensemble. Norsk Regnesentral. Report at the Norwegian Computing Center 1047. (ISBN 978-82-539-0557-0) pp 20. 2018. Fulltekst
. Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/04/18. pp 25. 2018. Fulltekst
. Does Bayes beat squinting? Estimating unobserved aspects of a spatial cluster process. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/05/18. pp 18. 2018. Fulltekst
. Nytt rammeverk for flomestimering i Norge: Sluttrapport fra forskningsprosjektet FlomQ. Energi Norge. (ISBN 978-82-436-1048-4) pp 71. 2018.
2017
. Evaluation of precipitation output from the EURO-CORDEX climate ensemble using E-OBS data. Norsk Regnesentral. Report at the Norwegian Computing Center 1045. (ISBN 978-82-539-0555-6) pp 58. 2017. Fulltekst
. Influence of reference period on evaluation of temperature output from the EURO-CORDEX climate ensemble using E-OBS data. Norsk Regnesentral. Report at the Norwegian Computing Center 1046. (ISBN 978-82-539-0556-3) pp 35. 2017. Fulltekst
. Verification: assessment of calibration and accuracy. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/17/2017. pp 38. 2017. Fulltekst
2016
. Report from a workshop on practical and methodological challenges of climate change adaptation. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/32/2016. pp 14. 2016.
. Mixture models for statistical flood frequency analysis. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/31/16. pp 20. 2016.
. Progagation of rating curve uncertainty in design flood estimation. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/03/16. pp 30. 2016.
2015
. StfSpot -- Short Term forecasts of Demand, Renewable Production and Spot Price with Bid/Ask curve analysis -- Version 9.5. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/21/15. pp 56. 2015.
2014
. Data assimilation and statistical post-processing for numerical air quality predictions. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/49/14. pp 66. 2014.
. StfSpot -- Short Term forecasts of Demand, Renewable Production and Spot Price with Bid/Ask curve analysis -- Version 9.0. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/42/14. pp 58. 2014.
. StfSpot - Short Term forecasts of Demand, Renewable Production and Spot Price - Version 8.0. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/18/14. pp 47. 2014.
. Lecture notes on Bayesian inference. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/43/14. pp 82. 2014.
. StfSpot - Short Term forecasts of Demand and Spot Price - Version 7.0. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/05/14. pp 54. 2014.
2013
. StfSpot – Short Term forecasts of Demand and Spot Price – Version 5.0. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/17/13. pp 53. 2013.
. Status for og veier til bedre flomestimering i Norge. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/23/13. pp 39. 2013. Fulltekst
. Statistiske metoder for korreksjon av deterministiske luftforurensningsprognoser. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/38/13. pp 53. 2013.
. A note on the calculation of weighted maintenance objects for hydro power plants. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/40/13. pp 11. 2013.
. A robust flood estimation framework for Norway. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/22/13. pp 18. 2013.
. StfSpot - Short Term forecasts of Demand and Spot Price - Version 6.0. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/51/13. pp 55. 2013.
2012
. A note on moving average models for Gaussian random fields. Centre for Stochastic Geometry and Advanced Bioimaging. CSGB Research Report 13/2012. pp 12. 2012. Fulltekst
. What happened to discrete chaos, the Quenouille process, and the sharp Markov property? Some history of stochastic point processes. Norwegian Computing Center. NR-notat SAMBA/16/12. pp 23. 2012. Fulltekst
2010
. Bayesian Inference for Non-Markovian Point Processes. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/54/10. pp 28. 2010. Fulltekst
Article in business/trade/industry journal
2018
. How to save Bergen from the sea? Decisions under uncertainty. Significance (ISSN 1740-9705). 15(2) pp 14-18. doi: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2018.01125.x. 2018.
Editorial
2016
. Comments on: Of quantiles and expectiles: consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings. Journal of The Royal Statistical Society Series B-statistical Methodology (ISSN 1369-7412). 78(3) pp 548. 2016.
2014
. Comments on: Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch. Test (Madrid) (ISSN 1133-0686). 23(1) pp 32-33. doi: 10.1007/s11749-014-0354-x. 2014. Fulltekst
Interview
2021
Programme management
2022
. Episode 16: Climate Futures. Klimaprognoser for 10 dager til 10 år fram / Predicting climate risks 10 days to 10 years ahead. 2022. Fulltekst
. Hvordan vet vi hvor tørr sommeren i Europa blir? / How to make a seasonal forecast. 2022. Fulltekst
| Name: | Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir |
| Title: | Sjefsforsker II / Chief Research Scientist II |
| Phone: | (+47) +47 22 85 25 60 |
| Email: | thordis [at] nr [dot] no |
| Scientific areas: | Bayesian methods, Probabilistic forecasting and verification, Point processes, Spatial statistics, Weather and climate |
| Add to contacts (vCard) |
| Show publications |
Academic article
2022
. Probabilistic prediction of the time to hard freeze using seasonal weather forecasts and survival time methods. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (ISSN 0035-9009). doi: 10.1002/qj.4403. 2022.
. Quantile based modeling of diurnal temperature range with the five-parameter lambda distribution. Environmetrics (ISSN 1180-4009). doi: 10.1002/env.2719. 2022. Arkiv
2021
. Consistent intensity-duration-frequency curves by post-processing of estimated Bayesian posterior quantiles. Journal of Hydrology (ISSN 0022-1694). 603(Part C) pp 1-15. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127000. 2021.
. Bridging the scale gap: obtaining high-resolution stochastic simulations of gridded daily precipitation in a future climate. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) (ISSN 1027-5606). 25(9) pp 5259-5275. doi: 10.5194/hess-25-5259-2021. 2021. Arkiv
2020
. Predictive Inference Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Output. International Statistical Review (ISSN 0306-7734). doi: 10.1111/insr.12405. 2020.
. Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations of historical surface air temperature extremes using proper evaluation methods. Environmental Research Letters (ISSN 1748-9326). 15(12) pp 124041. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc778. 2020. Arkiv Fulltekst
. Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea by using Bayesian hierarchical modelling. The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics) (ISSN 0035-9254). 69(2) doi: 10.1111/rssc.12397. 2020.
. Multivariate Postprocessing Methods for High-Dimensional Seasonal Weather Forecasts. Journal of the American Statistical Association (ISSN 0162-1459). doi: 10.1080/01621459.2020.1769634. 2020.
. Spatial trend analysis of gridded temperature data at varying spatial scales. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography (ASCMO) (ISSN 2364-3579). 6(1) pp 1-12. doi: 10.5194/ascmo-6-1-2020. 2020. Arkiv
2019
. Rapid adjustment and post-processing of temperature forecast trajectories. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (ISSN 0035-9009). doi: 10.1002/qj.3718. 2019.
. New approach for bias correction and stochastic downscaling of future projections for daily mean temperatures to a high-resolution grid. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (ISSN 1558-8424). 58(12) pp 2617-2632. doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0086.1. 2019. Arkiv
2018
. Bayesian regional flood frequency analysis for large catchments. Water Resources Research (ISSN 0043-1397). 54(9) pp 6929-6947. doi: 10.1029/2017WR022460. 2018. Fulltekst
. Evaluation of design flood estimates - a case study for Norway. Hydrology Research (ISSN 1998-9563). 49(2) pp 450-465. doi: 10.2166/nh.2017.068. 2018. Fulltekst Arkiv
2017
. Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities. Weather and Climate Extremes (ISSN 2212-0947). 18 pp 65-74. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2017.10.003. 2017. Fulltekst
. Sea level adaptation decisions under uncertainty. Water Resources Research (ISSN 0043-1397). 53(10) pp 8147-8163. doi: 10.1002/2016WR020354. 2017. Fulltekst
. Forecaster's dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation. Statistical Science (ISSN 0883-4237). 32(1) pp 106-127. doi: 10.1214/16-STS588. 2017. Omtale Fulltekst
2016
. Assessing the Calibration of High-Dimensional Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms. Journal of Computational And Graphical Statistics (JCGS) (ISSN 1061-8600). 25(1) pp 105-122. doi: 10.1080/10618600.2014.977447. 2016. Fulltekst
. Challenges of climate change adaptation: Practical and methodological challenges of climate change adaptation. EOS (ISSN 0096-3941). 97 2016. Fulltekst
. Propagation of rating curve uncertainty in design flood estimation. Water Resources Research (ISSN 0043-1397). 52(9) pp 6897-6915. doi: 10.1002/2015WR018516. 2016.
2015
. Gaussian random particles with flexible Hausdorff dimension. Advances in Applied Probability (ISSN 0001-8678). 47(2) pp 307-327. doi: 10.1239/aap/1435236977. 2015. Fulltekst
. Bayesian hierarchical modeling of extreme hourly precipitation in Norway. Environmetrics (ISSN 1180-4009). 26(2) pp 89-106. doi: 10.1002/env.2301. 2015. Fulltekst
. Spatial postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for temperature using nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression. Monthly Weather Review (ISSN 0027-0644). 143(3) pp 955-971. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00210.1. 2015. Fulltekst
. Bayesian motion estimation for dust aerosols. Annals of Applied Statistics (ISSN 1932-6157). 9(3) pp 1298-1327. doi: 10.1214/15-AOAS835. 2015.
. Shape from texture using locally scaled point processes. Image Analysis and Stereology (ISSN 1580-3139). 34(3) pp 161-170. doi: 10.5566/ias.1078. 2015.
2014
. Studying statistical methodology in climate research: Stats + climate workshop; Oslo, Norway, 11-13 November 2013. EOS (ISSN 0096-3941). 95(15) pp 129. doi: 10.1002/2014EO150008. 2014. Sammendrag Fulltekst Omtale
. A framework for benchmarking of homogenisation algorithm performance on the global scale. Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems (ISSN 2193-0856). 3 pp 187-200. doi: 10.5194/gi-3-187-2014. 2014.
. Concepts for benchmarking of homogenisation algorithm performance on the global scale. Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems Discussions (ISSN 2193-0872). 4(1) pp 235-270. doi: 10.5194/gid-4-235-2014. 2014.
2013
. Multivariate probabilistic forecasting using Bayesian model averaging and copulas. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (ISSN 0035-9009). 139(673) pp 982-991. doi: 10.1002/qj.2009. 2013.
. Calibration diagnostics for point process models via the probability integral transform. Stat (ISSN 2049-1573). 2(1) pp 150-158. doi: 10.1002/sta4.25. 2013.
. Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling. Statistical Science (ISSN 0883-4237). 28(4) pp 616-640. doi: 10.1214/13-STS443. 2013.
. Comparison of non-homogeneous regression models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography (ISSN 0280-6495). 65 doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.21206. 2013.
. Using Proper Divergence Functions to Evaluate Climate Models. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification (JUQ) (ISSN 2166-2525). 1(1) pp 522-534. doi: 10.1137/130907550. 2013.
. A note on moving average models for Gaussian random fields. Statistics and Probability Letters (ISSN 0167-7152). 83(3) pp 850-855. doi: 10.1016/j.spl.2012.12.009. 2013.
2012
. Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts. Promet (Offenbach) (ISSN 0340-4552). 37(3/4) pp 43-52. 2012.
. Forecast verification for extreme value distributions with an application to probabilistic peak wind prediction. Environmetrics (ISSN 1180-4009). 23(7) pp 579-594. doi: 10.1002/env.2176. 2012.
Academic literature review
2022
. Forecasting: theory and practice. International Journal of Forecasting (ISSN 0169-2070). 38 pp 705-871. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001. 2022.
2017
. New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue. Nature Climate Change (ISSN 1758-678X). 7(10) pp 697-703. doi: 10.1038/nclimate3393. 2017.
2012
. What Happened to Discrete Chaos, the Quenouille Process, and the Sharp Markov Property? Some History of Stochastic Point Processes. International Statistical Review (ISSN 0306-7734). 80(2) pp 253-268. doi: 10.1111/j.1751-5823.2012.00181.x. 2012.
Book review
2019
. Local Climate Projections: A Little Money Goes a Long Way. 2019.
Academic chapter/article/Conference paper
2018
. Verification: Assessment of Calibration and Accuracy. In: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts. (ISBN 978-0-12-812372-0). pp 155-186. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-812372-0.00006-6. 2018.
2012
. Bayesian Inference for Non-Markovian Point Processes. In: Advances and Challenges in Space-time Modelling of Natural Events. (ISBN 978-3-642-17085-0). pp 79-102. doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-17086-7_4. 2012. Fulltekst
Academic lecture
2022
. Estimating consistent rainfall design values for Norway using Bayesian inference and post-processing of posterior quantiles. EMS Annual Meeting 2022, EMS2022-85; Bonn, 9/4/2022 - 9/9/2022.
. Consistent estimation of extreme precipitation and flooding across multiple durations. Workshop on Extremal Trends in Weather (WET Weather); Wales, 9/21/2022.
. Consistent estimation of extreme precipitation and flooding across multiple durations. BIRS Combining Causal Inference and Extreme Value Theory in the Study of Climate Extremes and their Causes; Kelowna, Canada og digitalt, 6/28/2022.
. Validation of point process predictions with proper scoring rules. Natural Resources Institute Finland Statistics Seminar, 3/7/2022.
. A Bayesian framework to derive consistent intensity-duration-frequency curves from multiple data sources. EGU General Assembly 2022; Wien og digitalt, 5/23/2022 - 5/27/2022.
. Probabilistic prediction of the time to hard freeze using seasonal weather forecasts and survival time methods. EGU General Assembly 2022; Wien og digitalt, 5/23/2022 - 5/27/2022.
. Flood-duration-frequency (QDF) Modeling: Updates and Current Status. ClimDesign’s annual international seminar, 10/24/2022.
. Regional flood-Duration-Frequency (QDF) Models for Norway. Nordic Hydrologic Council (NHC) Conference, 8/16/2022.
. New Flood-Duration-Frequency Models with a Focus on Estimation of Sub-daily Floods. 12th International Workshop on Statistical Hydrology, 9/17/2022.
2021
. A Bayesian approach to Flood-Duration-Analysis. American Geophyscial Union (AGU) Conference, 12/16/2021.
. Forecast evaluation part I. Western Swiss Doctoral School in Statistics and Probability; Virtual, 2/8/2021 - 2/10/2021.
. Forecast evaluation part III. Western Swiss Doctoral School in Statistics and Probability; Virtual, 2/8/2021 - 2/10/2021.
. Forecast evaluation part II. Western Swiss Doctoral School in Statistics and Probability; Virtual, 2/8/2021 - 2/10/2021.
. On the importance of statistics and machine learning in climate research. Norsk Statistisk Forening seminar; Oslo, 11/16/2021.
. Machine learning vs statistical methods for climate data analysis. Data driven climate insight; Virtual, 1/19/2021.
. Consistent Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves by post-processing of estimated Bayesian posterior quantiles. 6th Conference on Modelling Hydrology, Climate and Land Surface Processes; Lillehammer, 9/14/2021 2:00:00 AM - 9/16/2021.
2020
. From weather to climate predictions. 40th International Symposium on Forecasting; Virtual, 10/26/2020 - 10/28/2020.
2019
. Statistical space-time projections of wave heights in the North Atlantic. European Meeting of Statisticians; Palermo, 7/22/2019 - 7/26/2019.
. Rapid Adjustment of Forecast Trajectories: improving short-term forecast skill through statistical post-processing. European Geosciences Union General Assembly; Wien, 4/7/2019 - 4/12/2019. Omtale
. The effects of uncertainty on design flood estimation. EVA 2019, 7/1/2019 - 7/5/2019.
. Rapid adjustment of weather forecast trajectories. Big Insight Lunch Meeting; Norsk Regnesentral, 5/8/2019.
. Decision support for climate change adaptation: The importance of uncertainty assessment. RSS 2019, 9/4/2019.
. On developing general and efficient inference algorithms for complicated hierarchical models. World Statistics Congress, 8/21/2019.
. Statistics in climate research: The importance of stochastic modelling and uncertainty quantification. University of Goettingen, Statistics Seminar, 2/21/2019.
2018
. Improving forecasts through rapid updating of temperature trajectories and statistical post-processing. European Geosciences Union General Assembly; Wien, 4/8/2018 - 4/13/2018.
. Post-processing climate model output to obtain accurate high-resolution climate projections & why uncertainty matters even if the answer is just a number. Swiss Statistics Seminar, 11/9/2018.
. Statistics in climate research: The importance of stochastic modelling and uncertainty quantification. UiO Statistics Seminar, 11/20/2018.
. Using nerve fibre data as a statistical laboratory. 9th Smögen Workshop, 8/13/2018 - 8/16/2018.
. Spatial hierarchical modelling with a large number of potential covariates. EPFL statistics seminar, 11/8/2018.
. Bayesian hierarchical modeling of extreme flood events. 9th Smögen Workshop, 8/13/2018 - 8/16/2018.
. Varsling av vær og klima i maskinlæringens tid. Hvor gode kan sesongvarslene bli? Kraftverkshydrologi og miljøforhold, 11/20/2018 - 11/21/2018.
. Point processes: Models vs. inference. METMA IX; Montpellier, 6/13/2018 - 6/15/2018.
. Does Bayes beat squinting? Bayesian modelling of cluster point process models. RSS Highland Group - St Andrews meeting; St Andrews, 4/18/2018.
. Bayesian modelling of cluster point process models. ISBA 2018; Edinburgh, 6/27/2018.
. Statistical estimation of extreme floods. Extremes 2018; Hannover, 3/18/2018.
. On developing general and efficient inference algorithms for complicated hierarchical models. 13th German Probability and Statistics Days; Freiburg, 2/28/2018.
2017
. FlomQ: Improving flood estimation methods for dam safety in Norway. EnergiForsk HUVA dagen; Stockholm, 12/7/2017.
. Forecast evaluation II. ScienceFore Summer School: The Science of Forecasting; Heidelberg, 10/4/2017 - 10/6/2017.
. Forecast evaluation I. ScienceFore Summer School: The Science of Forecasting; Heidelberg, 10/4/2017 - 10/6/2017.
. Probabilistic Forecasting of Temporal Trajectories of Regional Power Production. Forecasting and Risk Management for Renewable Energy; University Paris Diderot, Paris, 7/7/2017 - 7/9/2017.
. Spatial trend analysis of gridded temperature data sets at varying spatial scales. Synthesis of Statistics, Data Mining and Environmental Sciences in Pursuit of Knowledge Discovery (17w5076); Oaxaca, 10/29/2017 - 11/3/2017.
. I don't know, are you sure you want to do this? Challenges in the Statistical Modeling of Stochastic Processes for the Natural Sciences; Banff, 7/10/2017 - 7/14/2017.
. Estimating the seal pup abundance in the Greenland Sea with Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Det 17. norske statistikermøtet; Fredrikstad, 6/12/2017 - 6/15/2017.
. Bayesian modelling of cluster point process models. Spatial Statistics 2017; Lancaster, 7/4/2017 - 7/7/2017.
. The role of uncertainty in evidence based climate change adaptation. ECCA 2017; Glasgow, 6/5/2017 - 6/9/2017.
2016
. Estimating seal pup abundance with LGCP. Autumn Meeting on Latent Gaussian Models, 10/10/2016 - 10/11/2016.
. Regional flood frequency analysis for Norway. Workshop on spatial and space-time statistics; Smögen, 8/15/2016 - 8/18/2016.
. Paths and pitfalls in model evaluation: The importance of being proper. The 26th Annual Conference of the International Environmetrics Society; Edinburgh, 7/18/2016 - 7/22/2016.
. FlomQ - Hvor sikkert kan dimensjoneringsgrunnlaget bestemmes? Produksjonsteknisk konferanse; Bergen, 3/8/2016.
. Regional flood frequency analysis for Norway. Karlsruhe Insitute of Technology Stochastics Seminar, 5/17/2016.
. Regional flood frequency analysis for Norway. University of Exeter Statistics Seminar, 5/12/2016.
2015
. Assessing the calibration of high-dimensional ensemble forecasts using rank histograms. RSS 2015; Exeter, 9/8/2015.
2014
. Predicting temporal trajectories of regional wind and solar power production. High-dimensional, high-frequency and spatial data; Karlsruhe, 10/31/2014.
. Joint probabilistic forecasting of temporal trajectories of regional wind and solar power production. New challenges in spatial and spatio-temporal modeling; Smögen, 8/25/2014.
. Joint probabilistic forecasting of temporal trajectories of regional wind and solar power production. Spatial Copula Workshop; Münster, 9/23/2014.
. Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models. Uncertainty in climate variability and projections of climate change: towards a process-based understanding; Chicheley Hall, 9/16/2014.
. Recovering the multivariate dependencies of statistically post-processed ensemble forecasts with ensemble copula coupling. World Weather Open Science Conference; Montreal, 8/20/2014.
. Evaluating probabilistic forecasts. Modelling and Prediction of Weather Extremes; Annweiler am Trifels, 6/10/2014 - 6/13/2014.
. Recovering the multivariate dependencies of statistically post-processed ensemble forecasts. The Climate Corporation, 2/18/2014.
2013
. Recovering the multivariate dependencies of statistically post-processed ensemble forecasts. University of Reading Meteorology Department Seminar; Reading, 2/11/2013.
. Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models. 12th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology; Jeju, 6/24/2013 - 6/28/2013.
. Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models. 11th European Congress of Stereology and Image Analysis; Kaiserslautern, 7/8/2013 - 7/12/2013.
. Geometric analysis of textured 3D scenes via locally scaled point processes. Joint Statistical Meeting; Montreal, 8/3/2013 - 8/8/2013.
. Efficient framework for Bayesian inference in locally scaled point processes. 11th European Congress of Stereology and Image Analysis; Kaiserslautern, 7/8/2013 - 7/12/2013.
. Improving the evaluation of climate extreme events in global climate models (CMIP5) using proper divergences. Stats + Climate; Oslo, 11/11/2013 - 11/13/2013.
. Detecting the differences: Bayesian model selection framework for point process models. 2nd French Workshop on Stochastic Geometry; Grenoble, 4/3/2013 - 4/5/2013.
. Assessing the calibration of high-dimensional forecasts via rank histograms. NTNU Statistics Miniworkshop, 3/13/2013.
. Bayesian model selection for point process cluster models. University of Reading Statistics Seminar, 2/12/2013.
. Paths and pitfalls in prediction verification. Norges Bank Lunch Seminar; Oslo, 1/14/2013.
2012
. Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts. UiO Geofag Seminar; Oslo, 10/15/2012.
. Proper scoring rules and divergences to evaluate weather and climate models. UiO Stat Seminar; Oslo, 10/30/2012.
. Bayesian model selection for point process cluster models. The Trondheim Symposium in Statistics; Selbu, 10/19/2012 - 10/20/2012.
. Proper scoring rules and divergences -- with an application to climate model ranking. COST VALUE -- Data and Validation Workshop; Trieste, 9/19/2012 - 9/20/2012.
Lecture
2022
. Potensialet i data. NFR og KLD frokostmøte: Data og datadeling, 9/29/2022.
. Extracting robust information from data. Consolidating downscaling for the provision of regional climate information; Oslo og digitalt, 10/12/2022.
. Climate Futures: Navigating climate risk. Workshop on Extremal Trends in Weather (WET Weather); Wales, 9/21/2022.
. On the importance of statistics and machine learning in climate research. dScience Lunch Seminar; Oslo, 3/3/2022.
. Probabilistic prediction of the time to hard freeze using seasonal weather forecasts and survival time methods. Bjerknes Climate Prediction seminar; Bergen/Digitalt, 2/25/2022.
. Prediction of the time to hard freeze using seasonal weather forecasts and survival time methods. Faglig seminar - Climate Futures; Zoom, 2/15/2022.
2021
. The Climate Futures Center for Research-based Innovation. Statkraft knowledge session; Oslo, 11/11/2021.
. New methods for making consistent IDF curves for Norway. Workshop on statistical modelling of extremes - Annual workshop in the RCN funded project ClimDesign; NVE, Middelthunsgate 29, Oslo, Norway, 10/11/2021 - 10/12/2021.
2017
. If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough. Challenges in the Statistical Modeling of Stochastic Processes for the Natural Sciences; Banff, 7/10/2017 - 7/14/2017.
2016
. Flomfrekvensanalyse for umålte felt. FlomQ workshop on flomestimering; Trondheim, 5/23/2016.
2014
. A robust flood estimation framework for Norway. FlomQ startup workshop; Oslo, 5/7/2014.
. FlomQ - A robust flood estimation framework for Norway. High North Seminar; Oslo, 10/28/2014.
. FlomQ - flomberegningsprosjekt. Regionsmøte i Vassdragsteknisk forum vest; Rosendal, 9/2/2014.
2013
. Visualizing in R - advanced plotting. Kurs. Det 17. norske statistikermøtet; Halden, 6/10/2013 - 6/11/2013.
Poster
2019
. HDwave: Statistical space-time projections of wave heights. 2nd International Workshop on Waves, Storm Surges and Coastal Hazards, 11/10/2019 - 11/15/2019.
2016
. Propagation of rating curve uncertainty in design flood estimation. EGU 2016, 4/18/2016 - 4/22/2016.
Report
2023
. Gjensidige Denmark: Water damage risk model and preliminary analysis of storm damages. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/03/23. pp 46. 2023.
2022
. A Benchmarking Dataset for Seasonal Weather Forecasts. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/01/22. pp 10. 2022.
2021
. Prediksjon av lavvann ved Åbjøra. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/13/21. pp 35. 2021.
. Stedsbasert risiko for vannskader - fase 2: Effekten av bygningsegenskaper, meteorologi og topografi. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat Samba/12/21. pp 54. 2021.
2020
. Validation of point process predictions with proper scoring rules. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/17/20. pp 26. 2020. Fulltekst
. Trajectory adjustment of lagged seasonal forecast ensembles. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/19/20. pp 13. 2020.
. Risikomodell for vannskader på bygninger og sensitivitet i klimaframskrivninger. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/25/20. pp 91. 2020. Arkiv
. Risikomodell for vannskader på bygninger. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/06/20. pp 75. 2020.
. Stedsbasert risiko for vannskader - fase 1: Vurdering av topografiske indekser. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/48/20. pp 34. 2020.
2019
. Stratospheric events and long-range Scandinavian winter surface temperature forecasts. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/21/19. pp 33. 2019.
. Validation of point process forecasts. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/20/19. pp 28. 2019. Fulltekst
2018
. Evaluation of bias corrected precipitation output from the EURO-CORDEX climate ensemble. Norsk Regnesentral. Report at the Norwegian Computing Center 1047. (ISBN 978-82-539-0557-0) pp 20. 2018. Fulltekst
. Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/04/18. pp 25. 2018. Fulltekst
. Does Bayes beat squinting? Estimating unobserved aspects of a spatial cluster process. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/05/18. pp 18. 2018. Fulltekst
. Nytt rammeverk for flomestimering i Norge: Sluttrapport fra forskningsprosjektet FlomQ. Energi Norge. (ISBN 978-82-436-1048-4) pp 71. 2018.
2017
. Evaluation of precipitation output from the EURO-CORDEX climate ensemble using E-OBS data. Norsk Regnesentral. Report at the Norwegian Computing Center 1045. (ISBN 978-82-539-0555-6) pp 58. 2017. Fulltekst
. Influence of reference period on evaluation of temperature output from the EURO-CORDEX climate ensemble using E-OBS data. Norsk Regnesentral. Report at the Norwegian Computing Center 1046. (ISBN 978-82-539-0556-3) pp 35. 2017. Fulltekst
. Verification: assessment of calibration and accuracy. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/17/2017. pp 38. 2017. Fulltekst
2016
. Report from a workshop on practical and methodological challenges of climate change adaptation. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/32/2016. pp 14. 2016.
. Mixture models for statistical flood frequency analysis. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/31/16. pp 20. 2016.
. Progagation of rating curve uncertainty in design flood estimation. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/03/16. pp 30. 2016.
2015
. StfSpot -- Short Term forecasts of Demand, Renewable Production and Spot Price with Bid/Ask curve analysis -- Version 9.5. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/21/15. pp 56. 2015.
2014
. Data assimilation and statistical post-processing for numerical air quality predictions. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/49/14. pp 66. 2014.
. StfSpot -- Short Term forecasts of Demand, Renewable Production and Spot Price with Bid/Ask curve analysis -- Version 9.0. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/42/14. pp 58. 2014.
. StfSpot - Short Term forecasts of Demand, Renewable Production and Spot Price - Version 8.0. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/18/14. pp 47. 2014.
. Lecture notes on Bayesian inference. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/43/14. pp 82. 2014.
. StfSpot - Short Term forecasts of Demand and Spot Price - Version 7.0. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/05/14. pp 54. 2014.
2013
. StfSpot – Short Term forecasts of Demand and Spot Price – Version 5.0. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/17/13. pp 53. 2013.
. Status for og veier til bedre flomestimering i Norge. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/23/13. pp 39. 2013. Fulltekst
. Statistiske metoder for korreksjon av deterministiske luftforurensningsprognoser. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/38/13. pp 53. 2013.
. A note on the calculation of weighted maintenance objects for hydro power plants. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/40/13. pp 11. 2013.
. A robust flood estimation framework for Norway. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/22/13. pp 18. 2013.
. StfSpot - Short Term forecasts of Demand and Spot Price - Version 6.0. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/51/13. pp 55. 2013.
2012
. A note on moving average models for Gaussian random fields. Centre for Stochastic Geometry and Advanced Bioimaging. CSGB Research Report 13/2012. pp 12. 2012. Fulltekst
. What happened to discrete chaos, the Quenouille process, and the sharp Markov property? Some history of stochastic point processes. Norwegian Computing Center. NR-notat SAMBA/16/12. pp 23. 2012. Fulltekst
2010
. Bayesian Inference for Non-Markovian Point Processes. Norsk Regnesentral. NR-notat SAMBA/54/10. pp 28. 2010. Fulltekst
Article in business/trade/industry journal
2018
. How to save Bergen from the sea? Decisions under uncertainty. Significance (ISSN 1740-9705). 15(2) pp 14-18. doi: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2018.01125.x. 2018.
Editorial
2016
. Comments on: Of quantiles and expectiles: consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings. Journal of The Royal Statistical Society Series B-statistical Methodology (ISSN 1369-7412). 78(3) pp 548. 2016.
2014
. Comments on: Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch. Test (Madrid) (ISSN 1133-0686). 23(1) pp 32-33. doi: 10.1007/s11749-014-0354-x. 2014. Fulltekst
Interview
2021
Programme management
2022
. Episode 16: Climate Futures. Klimaprognoser for 10 dager til 10 år fram / Predicting climate risks 10 days to 10 years ahead. 2022. Fulltekst
. Hvordan vet vi hvor tørr sommeren i Europa blir? / How to make a seasonal forecast. 2022. Fulltekst
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