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Prediction of biomass in Norwegian fish farms

Prediction of biomass in Norwegian fish farms

Fish farmThe aim of the project was to construct a modeling framework for forecasting of biomass and slaughtering in Norwegian fish farms, in order to ensure predictable and optimal production of farmed fish.

The production cycle in a Norwegian salmon farm is in some sense predetermined. After new (young) fish have been put out, the fish is usually slaughtered after 1½–3 years. Hence, the production cycle involves predetermined fluctuations in the quantity of slaughtered fish. If a large predetermined slaughtering occurs at the same time as the prices are low, this may lead to even lower prices. Previously, no reliable tool for forecasting these production fluctuations existed. But when the new fish have been put out, the biomass of slaughtered fish is in principle predictable at a horizon of 2 years, since growth of farmed fish to a large extent is systematic.

Since 2002, monthly production data from all Norwegian fish farms are electronically collected into the database Havbruksdata. This enables analysis of the production in the Norwegian fish farm market and it is possible to give quantitative forecasts of future development of the biomass in the fish farms.


Løland, A., Aldrin, M., Steinbakk, G. H. , Huseby, R. B. and Grøttum, J.A. (2011) Prediction of biomass in Norwegian fish farms. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Vol. 68, Number 8, p. 1420-1434, doi: 10.1139/f2011-078 .

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