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Statistical analysis of climate projections (eSACP)

Statistical analysis of climate projections (eSACP)


Long-term planning and decision-making regarding fundamental societal infrastructure such as transportation, energy supply and water and drainage systems must account for a changing climate. The relevant climate projections are typically associated with severe inherent uncertainty and it is critical that the decision-making appropriately accounts for this. To this end, there is an urgent need for new generic eScience tools that allow decision-makers, engineers and scientists from all fields to utilize the extensive existing repositories of observations and climate model data as well as recent methods for uncertainty quantification in climate science. 

In eSACP, climate scientists and mathematical scientists from six partners in three Nordic countries join forces to develop a suite of open-access tools for climate assessment. The new tools will be demand-driven, and entail functionality to handle automatic downloads from the dynamically growing repositories of data, methodology to effectively quantify and visualize uncertainty in the climate projections, and a multi-platform approach to decision-making under uncertainty that can flexibly be tailored towards a variety of situations. The focus will be on Nordic data and local or regional questions regarding temperature, precipitation, wind and sea-level. 

NR manages the project and we will contribute to the development of tools for sea level assessment, decision-making, data selection and visualization. 

For more information, see the project website


  • Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Peter Guttorp, Martin Drews, Per Skougaard Kaspersen and Karianne de Bruin (2017): I don't know, are you sure you want to do this? Sea level adaptation decisions under uncertainty. NR report no. SAMBA/02/17 (available here)
  • Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir and Karianne de Bruin (2016): Challenges of climate change adaptationEos, 97, doi:10.1029/2016EO062121 (available here)
  • Karianne de Bruin and Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir (2016): Report on workshop linking practitioners and researchers: Practical and methodological challenges of climate change adaptation. NR report no. SAMBA/32/16 (available here)
  • Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Peter Guttorp, Martin Drews, Per Skougaard Kaspersen and Karianne de Bruin (2017): Sea level adaptation decisions under uncertaintyWater Resources Research, 53(10): 8147-8163 (available here
  • Rasmus Benestad, Jana Sillmann, Thordis L Thorarinsdottir, Peter Guttorp, Michel d S Mesquita, Mari R Tye, Petteri Uotila, Cathrine Fox Maule, Peter Thejll, Martin Drews and Kajsa M Parding (2017):  New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigueNature Climate Change, 7: 697-703 (journal website)


Project period

May 2015 - June 2018




Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research

Danish Meteorological Institute

Finnish Meteorological Institute

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Technical University of Denmark

Norsk Regnesentral
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Postadresse: Norsk Regnesentral, Postboks 114 Blindern, 0314 Oslo
Besøksadresse: Norsk Regnesentral, Gaustadalleen 23a, Kristen Nygaards hus, 0373 Oslo
Tlf: (+47) 22 85 25 00
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